Josh Turek held a lead over Zach Wahls in the latest poll of the Democratic primary for the Senate race in Iowa, a state Democrats are hoping to make competitive in this year’s midterm elections despite its rightward shift over the past decade.

Iowa’s Senate race is emerging as a barometer of whether Democrats can regain ground in the Midwest after years of Republican gains. Early polling showing either Turek or Wahls within striking distance of flipping the seat suggests the race could indeed be competitive, with the Democratic primary setting the contours of the race.

President Donald Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, but his approval rating has slipped nationwide. Democrats believe his unpopularity, the impact of his tariff policy on farmers, and the race being open after GOP Senator Joni Ernst announced her retirement could make Iowa competitive in November.

On the Republican side, Representative Ashley Hinson, endorsed by Trump, is viewed as the frontrunner against state legislator Jim Carlin in the primary. The Democratic primary is more contested, though recent polling does give Turek an edge.

Newsweek reached out to each campaign for comment via email.

Josh Turek Leads New Iowa Democratic Poll

The new Public Policy Polling survey, which sampled 672 likely voters on May 20-21, shows Turek commanding a significant lead. Sponsored by VoteVets, a group supporting Turek, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Punchbowl News was first to report the findings.

Key takeaways from the data include:

• The Matchup: Turek holds 52 percent support among respondents, compared to Wahls’ 31 percent.
• Favorability: Both candidates remain well-liked by Iowa Democrats, with Turek holding a 68 percent favorability rating and Wahls at 60 percent.
• The Overlap: Among voters who view both candidates positively, Turek leads 56-33.

“After trailing in our early polling, Turek took a substantial lead in April as voters became more familiar with him,” the polling report reads. “With less than two weeks to go, there’s not much evidence of that advantage receding.”

What Do Other Polls and Markets Show?

Initial polling of the race gave Wahls an advantage, but Turek has performed well in the latest poll. An earlier Public Policy Polling survey of 764 likely voters from May 5-6 showed him up with a similar lead—53 percent said they would vote for him, compared to 27 percent for Wahls.

An FM3 Research poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters from April 21-23, showed Turek up 20 points with 48 percent support compared to Wahls’ 28 percent. But a Bedrock Polling survey, which polled 1,022 likely voters on March 26, showed Wahls up 18 points with 56 percent compared to Turek’s 38 percent.

Prediction markets favor Turek, who had an 88 percent chance on Kalshi and an 89 percent chance on Polymarket of winning the Democratic nomination.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Turek vs. Wahls Chances Against Ashley Hinson in General Election

Polls suggest Iowa will see a tight race in November.

An Echelon Insights poll of 377 likely voters from April 3-9 showed Hinson trailing both Democrats. Wahls led the poll by two points with 46 percent compared to Hinson’s 44 percent, while Turek held a single-point lead with 46 percent compared to Hinson’s 45 percent.

However, a GBAO poll sponsored by ModSquad—a group supporting moderate Democrats—showed Hinson maintaining the upper hand. On an initial ballot, Hinson received 47 percent support against both Turek (43 percent) and Wahls (44 percent). The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters from March 10-16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent.

Prediction markets favor Republicans, who have a 60 percent chance on Kalshi and a 62 percent chance on Polymarket, of holding onto the seat in November.

When Is Iowa’s Primary?

Iowa’s primary is set for June 2, 2026.

Iowa’s Path From Battleground to Republican State

Iowa was viewed as a battleground for much of the 2000s, with former President Barack Obama carrying the state by about 10 points in 2008 and six points in 2012. But Trump performed well in the state in each of his presidential bids, winning it by 10 points in 2016, eight points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024.

Iowa’s shifts are emblematic of those across the Midwest, where Democrats lost ground among white working-class voters who flocked to Trump and Republicans over the past decade. Winning back those voters will be key to flipping the state in the midterms.

Trump’s popularity and tariffs, which have hit Iowa hard, could be major issues for Republicans in November. Gas prices have also emerged as a sticking point for the GOP amid the Iran war, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent global oil prices surging. Gas prices in Iowa averaged $4.24 per gallon on Friday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Forecasters still give Republicans an advantage in Iowa, with both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the race as Likely Republican.

Democrats’ Chances of Flipping Senate Control

Iowa has become a target for Democrats despite its Republican lean due to limited Democratic flip opportunities this year.

Historically, the party in the White House loses congressional seats during midterms, making Democrats optimistic about reclaiming the House of Representatives. However, the Senate map presents a steep uphill battle.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to secure a majority. North Carolina is crucial to Democrats’ bid to retake control of the Senate in the midterms; it’s the only GOP-held seat Trump won by single digits up for grabs in November.

Democrats view the seat in Maine, held by Republican Senator Susan Collins, as another top target, as Maine is a Democratic-leaning state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points in 2024. Democrats are also on the defensive in two Trump-won states, Georgia and Michigan.

But even if Democrats win all four of those races, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority, so they are eyeing states where Trump won by double digits, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, as potential flip opportunities. Those states are more conservative, but polls suggest races could be close.

For now, prediction markets expect the upper chamber to stay red. Kalshi gives the GOP a 54 percent chance and Polymarket gives them a 53 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate.